Criminal Deterrence Research at the Outset of the Twenty-First Century (From Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, Volume 23, P 1-42, 1998, Michael Tonry, ed. - See NCJ-173642)

• NCJ Number: 173643
• Author(s): D S Nagin
• Date Published: 1998
• Length: 42 pages
• Sale Source: University of Chicago Press
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This analysis of criminal deterrence research concludes that evidence for a substantial deterrent effect is much firmer than it was two decades ago, although four types of gaps in knowledge on the links between policy actions and behavior make it difficult to assess the effectiveness of policy options for deterring crime.

Abstract

The first of the four major impediments is that analyses must not only estimate short-term consequences but must also calibrate long-term effects. Some policies that are effective in preventing crime in the short term may be ineffective or even criminogenic in the long run because they may erode the foundation of the deterrent effect: the fear of stigmatization. Second, knowledge about the relationship of sanction risk perceptions to policy is almost nonexistent. Such knowledge would be invaluable in designing effective crime-deterrent policies. Third, estimates of deterrent effects based on data from multiple governmental units measure a policy's average effectiveness across units. It is important to improve understanding of the sources of variation in response across place and time. Fourth, research on the links between intended and actual policy is fragmentary. A more complete understanding of the technology of sanction generation is necessary for identifying the boundaries of feasible policy. Figures and 98 references (Author abstract modified)