NCJ Number
69631
Date Published
1971
Length
198 pages
Annotation
An economic approach to property crime is presented in this dissertation.
Abstract
It reviews the economic literature on crime which appeared before 1971, and describes two economic models of burglary and theft, the Master Criminal Model and the Competitive Crime Model. These nodels help explain the temporal and spatial variation in the number of thefts and burglaries as well as the payoff to crime. Based on an econometric model of crime, linear regression estimates are developed, and a total property crime variable is formed by summing the reported robberies, burglaries, and larcenies for each State. Also addressed are an adjustment for systematic underreporting of crime, elasticity estimates, the inclusion of private defense in the crime model, and errors in variables. Finally, a summary of results, implications for policy, and directions for future research are presented. Overall, the study concludes that punishment has a consistently negative, although minor affect on crime. From a policy viewpoint, cost calculations support increasing sentences rather than raising the probability of conviction to achieve marginal reductions in the level of crime. The study is intended for readers with an advanced knowledge of economics. Tables, footnotes, and over 60 references are included. Risk analysis, means and standard deviations, and the correlation matrix are appended.