NCJ Number
52678
Journal
Law and Society Review Volume: 12 Issue: 3 Dated: SPECIAL ISSUE (SPRING 1978) Pages: 341-366
Date Published
1978
Length
26 pages
Annotation
DATA FROM PREVIOUS STUDIES SHOWING A NEGATIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND VARIOUS CRIMINAL SANCTIONS, USUALLY INTERPRETED AS EVIDENCE OF DETERRENCE, ARE ANALYZED USING FIXED INCARCERATION RATES.
Abstract
THE INITIAL SECTIONS OF THIS PAPER REVIEW THE ACCUMULATED RESEARCH EVIDENCE ON DETERRENCE, PERFORMED ON A 1960 DATA SET, AND DISCUSS SOME PROBLEMS IN INTERPRETING KEY COMPONENTS OF THIS EVIDENCE (I.E., ANALYSIS OF NATURAL VARIATIONS) AND OF ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SIMULTANEOUSLY RELATED VARIABLES. A MODEL FOR RELATING INCARCERATION RATES TO CRIME RATES AND SANCTION LEVELS IS PRESENTED, THEN THE IMPLICATIONS OF MAINTAINING AN APPROXIMATELY FIXED INCARCERATION RATE WITHIN THIS MODEL ARE CONSIDERED. FINALLY, A SIMULTANEOUS MODEL OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND IMPRISONMENT RISK IS DEVELOPED USING CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY OF STATES' HOMICIDE RATES AND SANCTION MEASURES. THE RESULTS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE NEGATIVE ASSOCIATION OBSERVED BETWEEN THE UNIFORM CRIME REPORT'S INDEX CRIME RATE AND THE RISK OF IMPRISONMENT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECT OF CRIME RATE ON THE INPRISONMENT RISK. ALTHOUGH THIS FINDING DOES NOT LOGICALLY PRECLUDE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SANCTIONS ALSO HAVE A DETERRENT NEGATIVE EFFECT ON CRIME RATE, THIS ANALYSIS DID NOT REVEAL SUCH AN EFFECT FOR THE TWO SANCTION MEASURES: IMPRISONMENT RISK AND TIME SERVED. THEREFORE, IT APPEARS ON THE BASIS OF THE DATA SET, BARRING ANY INACCURACIES IN THE MEASURING INSTRUMENTS, THAT THE HIGHER THE CRIME RATE THE LOWER THE FEAR OF SANCTIONS (IMPRISONMENT). TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (DAG)