NCJ Number
176913
Date Published
1997
Length
35 pages
Annotation
The odds of imprisonment for a serious offense increased in the late 1980s and 1990s as legislators responded to the public's "enough is enough" attitude; the result has been a decreasing national crime rate.
Abstract
After soaring to alarming heights beginning in the 1960s, serious crime in the United States began leveling off in the 1980s and has declined for the past 3 years. Every category of violent crime has decreased since 1993. Last year (1996), serious crime reported to the police was only 10 percent above the rates for 1970, and in many cities they matched the rates of the 1960s. A major reason for this reduction in crime is that crime has become more costly to the perpetrators. The likelihood of going to prison for committing any type of major crime has increased substantially. Moreover, once in prison, criminals are staying there longer; the median prison sentence served has risen for every category of serious crime. Between 1950 and 1980, expected punishment declined continuously from an average of 7 weeks for every serious crime committed to only 10 days, an 80- percent drop. In response, the serious crime rate more than quadrupled during those years. In the 1980s, expected punishment began to increase, accompanied by the leveling off and then a decline in the serious crime rate. Between 1980 and 1995, expected punishment for serious crimes increased from 9.7 to 22.1 prison days, a 128-percent increase, and serious crime declined. If the United States is to achieve an even lower crime rate, crime must be made even less profitable by further increasing expected punishment. The options for doing this are expensive in the short run, but the cost of not building and maintaining more prisons to house more inmates for longer periods is even higher. 12 figures, 10 tables, and 47 notes