NCJ Number
46488
Date Published
1977
Length
20 pages
Annotation
A METHODOLOGICAL CRITIQUE AND REANALYSIS OF WILLIAM G. NAGEL'S DATA IN 'ON BEHALF OF A MORATORIUM ON PRISON CONSTRUCTION' IS PRESENTED. NAGEL'S CONCLUSIONS WERE BASED ON THE LACK OF RELATION BETWEEN CRIME/PRISON RATES.
Abstract
IN HIS PAPER, NAGEL COMPARED CRIME RATES FROM THE 15 STATES THAT BUILT THE MOST NEW PRISON CELLS FROM 1955 TO 1975 WITH THOSE IN THE 15 STATES THAT DID THE LEAST PRISON CONSTRUCTION OVER THE SAME PERIOD. HE FOUND THAT CRIME ROSE 167 PERCENT IN THE HIGH-CONSTRUCTION STATES AND 145 PERCENT IN LOW-CONSTRUCTION STATES. WHILE THIS ANALYSIS IS RATHER ELEMENTARY, IT NONETHELESS STANDS AS A REBUTTAL OF THE ASSUMPTION THAT PRISON CONSTRUCTION DETERS CRIME. THE GREATER PART OF NAGEL'S PAPER CONSISTED OF A CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF ALL 50 STATES USING A LARGE NUMBER OF VARIABLES; IT IS HERE THAT A NUMBER OF METHODOLOGICAL WEAKNESSES ARE APPARENT. THESE INCLUDE: (1) THE USE OF GRAPHICAL SCATTERPLOTS OF STATES' RANKING ON TWO VARIABLES, WHICH IS OPEN TO SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION AND GIVES ORDINAL MEASURES WEAKER THAN THE ORIGINAL DATA FROM WHICH THEY WERE DERIVED; (2) BIVARIATE ANALYSIS, WHICH MAY PROVIDE MISLEADING ASSOCIATIONS AS A RESULT OF EFFECTS OF UNINCLUDED VARIABLES; AND (3) AN INDIRECT RATHER THAN DIRECT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND INCARCERATION RATES. HIS ANALYSIS IGNORED TWO CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS -- HIGHER CRIME RATES RESULT IN MORE PEOPLE BEING JAILED, BUT IMPRISONING MORE CRIMINALS PREVENTS CRIME. TO REANALYZE THE DATA, A TWO-STAGE LEAST-SQUARES ESTIMATION METHOD WAS APPLIED TO THE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES OF CRIME AND INCARCERATION RATES AND THE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES OF LIBERALISM, PERCENTAGE URBAN AND PERCENTAGE BLACK POPULATION, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, INCOME PER CAPITA, PERCENTAGE LOW INCOME, AND BLACK MIGRATION. INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES INCLUDED PERCENTAGE YOUNG MALE POPULATION AND SOUTH/NORTH AND EAST/WEST REGIONS. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES AGAINST CRIME AND INCARCERATION FIGURES INDICATES THAT PERCENTAGE YOUNG MALES, BLACK MIGRATION, AND PERCENTAGE LOW INCOME WERE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT EFFECT. SUBSEQUENT REGRESSIONS LED TO DROPPING THE CONTROL FOR SOUTH AND DEVELOPING PERCENTAGE BLACK POPULATION AS THE INSTRUMENT FOR INCARCERATION RATE AND PERCENTAGE URBAN POPULATION AND PER CAPITA INCOME AS INSTRUMENTS FOR CRIME RATE. USING THESE VARIABLES, THE SECOND STAGE OF THE LEAST-SQUARES ESTIMATION INDICATED THAT: HEAVY RELIANCE OF INCARCERATION FAILS TO REDUCE CRIME; HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT BUT NOT POVERTY PER SE TENDS TO RESULT IN HIGHER CRIME RATES; URBANIZED STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE MORE CRIME THAN RURAL STATES; PRISON CONSTRUCTION AND UTILIZATION ARE UNAFFECTED ACROSS STATES BY RELATIVE CRIME RATES; AND PERCENTAGE BLACK POPULATION DOES NOT AFFECT CRIME RATES BUT DOES AFFECT INCARCERATION RATES. PRELIMINARY LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION INDICATES THAT THE CAUSAL PATTERN FOR PROPERTY CRIMES MAY DIFFER FROM THAT FOR VIOLENT CRIMES (URBANIZATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AFFECT VIOLENT CRIME LESS THAN PROPERTY CRIME) AND THAT STATES WITH LARGE BLACK POPULATIONS HAVE MORE VIOLENT CRIME BUT NOT MORE PROPERTY CRIME. RESULTS SUGGEST THAT REDUCING UNEMPLOYMENT MIGHT BE AN EFFECTIVE MEANS FOR REDUCING CRIME. FOOTNOTES AND TABULAR DATA ARE PROVIDED. (JAP)