NCJ Number
86508
Journal
Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology Volume: 15 Issue: 3 Dated: (September 1982) Pages: 133-153
Date Published
1982
Length
21 pages
Annotation
A time-series analysis (1961-80) examines the relationship between the imprisonment rates and the crime rates for Australia as a whole and for each of its jurisdictions.
Abstract
The imprisonment rates and crime rates were plotted in graphical form, and the product-moment correlations have been computed. Correlations lagged 1, 2, and 3 years for each of the crime rates, and the imprisonment rates have also been computed to establish temporal associations. The basic data were supplied by the Australia Bureau of Statistics and cover seven types of crimes: homicide, serious assault, robbery, rape, breaking and entering, auto theft, and fraud. Although it is to be expected that after an increase in crime and assuming a reasonable degree of consistency in detection, prosecution, and sentencing, prison populations would increase in the years following a crime increase; however, this expected pattern was found only in Queensland. A possible explanation of the results can be found in the system capacity model proposed by Pontell (1979), in which it is argued that the capacity of the criminal justice system to administer legal sanctions may be decreasing as the crime rate increases; e.g., increased crime means that there is less police and prosecution time available for each case. This can result in pressure for cases to be plea bargained, causing a decrease in the average penalty imposed. This speculative explanation is less likely to apply in Australia, where plea bargaining is not officially allowed, but the argument may still be relevant if the increased workload has the effect of forcing the police to seek convictions for lesser offenses that are more easily proved but which carry less harsh sentences. There is no indication that the level of imprisonment impacts the level of reported crime. Thirteen references are listed.