NCJ Number
124400
Date Published
1987
Length
14 pages
Annotation
This new model of inmate population projection analysis developed by the National Council on Crime and Delinquency addresses the origin and direction of inmate population change and analyzes the impact on inmate populations of new and proposed legislative changes in sentencing law.
Abstract
The model projects both prison and parole populations but can also be expanded to project probation, jail, and other offender populations. It can be custom-designed for each State's sentencing and correctional system, as software can be developed to simulate unique sentencing laws and correctional policies. Analysts can distinguish the effects of sentencing legislation and correctional policy affecting only subgroups of the total correctional population. Internal population movement tables aid in the validation of the model. The model can be adapted to provide projections by custody/supervision classification levels. It incorporates demographic and criminal justice processing factors that affect prison and probation admissions. The model has been tested, implemented, and validated in numerous States and can be designed and installed in a State within 90 days. Following a technical description of the model, this paper discusses the data requirements, projection output, States now using the model, simulation examples, and implementation considerations. Contact persons in user States are listed.