NCJ Number
87441
Date Published
1977
Length
49 pages
Annotation
Two general methods of correctional forecasting -- 'policy-blind' and 'policy-informed' -are possible. The policy-informed approach examines the impact of two policy approaches upon various components of the criminal justice system.
Abstract
A 'policy-blind' approach to correctional forecasting assumes that current policies will continue into the future, such that no dramatic changes in current patterns will occur. The policy-blind approach to corrections forecasts has some utility because of the high inertia of the system; however, such an approach is not accurate over the long term, and changes in reporting practices will produce data changes. Further, any major change in policy could produce sharp and sustained discontinuities. Also, policy-blind trends in the aggregate may be very different from trends in smaller components. The policy-informed approach must assume a range of alternative policy packages which, if implemented, would affect the future in particular ways. The application of this approach to corrections involves examining alternative policies for other components of the criminal justice system that determine the types of offenders entering the corrections system and the kinds of sentences given. This study examines a corrections future based upon an overall policy that emphasizes protecting the public from violent offenders that pose a special danger to citizens and another policy that emphasizes 'general law and order,' which undertakes an across the board effort to preserve traditional American values through the criminal justice system. The effects of such policies on the future of various criminal justice components, notably corrections, are discussed. The appendix contains a discussion of correctional forecasting and trend projection (a 'policy-blind' approach). Relevant tabular and graphic data are provided.