COMPUTER SIMULATION OF ADULT SENTENCING PROPOSALS

• NCJ Number: 55955
• Journal: Evaluation and Program Planning Volume: 1 Issue: 4 Dated: (1978) Pages: 297-308
• Author(s): G B COX; P HARRISON; C R DIGHTMAN
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 12 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Washington Dept of Social and Health Services
• Corporate Author: Pergamon Press, Inc
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS PROJECT IN THE STATE OF WASHINGTON DEVELOPED A SERIES OF COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAMS TO MODEL LEGISLATIVE SENTENCING PROPOSALS FOR ADULT OFFENDERS CONVICTED OF FELONIES.

Abstract

ALTERNATIVES IMPACT SIMULATION PROJECT DEVELOPED COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAMS TO MODEL SEVERAL SENTENCING PROPOSALS INTRODUCED IN THE LEGISLATURE TO HELP REDUCE PRISON OVERCROWDING. TWO POINTS ARE IMPORTANT IN UNDERSTANDING HOW SIMULATION WORKS: (1) THE ACCURACY AND USEFULNESS OF SIMULATION WILL BE AS SATISFACTORY AS ITS ASSUMPTIONS; AND (2) SIMULATION RESULTS ONLY CAN PROJECT OR ESTIMATE WHAT HAPPENS GIVEN A PARTICULAR SET OF CONDITIONS. THE PLAN OF ESTIMATION CALLED FOR DATA COLLECTION THROUGH DECEMBER 1976 AND DATA PROCESSING AND BASE RATE DERIVATIONS IN JANUARY 1977. HOUSE BILL 614, THE MOST ELABORATE AND SUCCESSFUL OF ALL LEGISLATIVE PROPOSALS, WAS CHOSEN FOR PROGRAM SIMULATION. TYPES OF DATA NEEDED FOR SIMULATING THIS BILL WERE DATA REQUIRED BY THE COMPUTER SIMULATION SYSTEM (NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PRISON, LENGTH OF PRISON TERM REMAINING, NUMBER OF PERSONS ON PAROLE OR PROBATION OR IN JAIL, AND LENGTH OF THESE TERMS REMAINING) DATA RELEVANT TO CONVICTIONS (NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS OVER TIME, NUMBER OF FELONY CLASSES, CLASS TO WHICH EACH FELONY BELONGED, AND PROPORTION OF CONVICTIONS IN EACH FELONY CLASS), DATA RELEVANT TO SENTENCING OFFENDERS (CLASS OF FELONY, AGGRAVATING OR MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES, USE OF DEADLY WEAPONS AND FIREARMS, AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRIOR CRIMINAL HISTORY, AND AMOUNT OF TIME OFF FOR GOOD BEHAVIOR), AND DATA PERTINENT TO PARTIAL CONFINEMENT AND COMMUNITY SUPERVISION (PROPORTION OF CONVICTIONS GIVEN EACH, LENGTH OF TIME ON EACH, AND RATE OF REVOCATION). DISCRETE SIMULATION WAS EMPLOYED USING DATA OBTAINED FROM FILES OF ABOUT 2,400 SUBJECTS WHO WERE EITHER CONVICTED OF FELONIES, RELEASED FROM PRISON, OR HAD PAROLE OR PROBATION REVOKED IN 1975. RESULTS ILLUSTRATE THE TYPES OF QUESTIONS COMPUTER SIMULATION CAN ADDRESS AND DEMONSTRATE THAT ANY APPLIED SIMULATION PROJECT MUST INCLUDE RESOURCES TO SUPPORT THE INTEGRATION OF THE TECHNIQUE INTO ONGOING OPERATIONS. DATA AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (DEP)