NCJ Number
80139
Date Published
1980
Length
144 pages
Annotation
Arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) from 1953 to 1977 were used to examine the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on crime rates.
Abstract
The UCR categories were grouped into three types of crime: violent, property, and public order. Data were analyzed using Goodman's log-linear model and other linear models. Property crimes were found to peak at age 16, violent crimes at age 24, and public order crimes at ages 40 through 44. For property crimes, each successive birth cohort showed an increase in arrest rates at young ages and a lower tendency to have decreased arrest rates later in life. For both violent and public order crimes, successive cohorts had increased arrest rates at younger ages but had arrest patterns similar to those of previous cohorts as they grew older. Changes in law enforcement and reporting appeared to explain part of the increase in arrest rates but were not sufficient to explain completely either the size of the change or the pattern of change in the three types of crime. However, several structural changes in the United States in recent years were consistent with the pattern of results. These changes included economic changes, time spent away from the household, urbanization, and changes in the age structure. Footnotes, figures, tables, 65 references, and appendixes presenting additional study data are provided. (Author abstract modified)