NCJ Number
50944
Journal
JOURNAL OF ASIAN STUDIES Volume: 36 Issue: 3 Dated: (MAY 1977) Pages: 477-489
Date Published
1977
Length
13 pages
Annotation
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPANDING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES AND DECLINING CRIME RATES IN POSTWAR JAPAN IS EXPLORED.
Abstract
DURING JAPAN'S POSTWAR RECOVERY, THE CRIME LEVEL ROSE UNTIL 1948 FOR CRIME IN GENERAL AND UNTIL 1951 FOR PROPERTY CRIME. FROM 1955 TO 1975 OPPORTUNITIES IN JAPANESE LABOR MARKETS GREW VERY RAPIDLY AND THE CRIME LEVEL DECLINED STEADILY. REGRESSION ANALYSIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE CONCLUSION THAT THERE HAS BEEN A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DECLINING CRIME IN JAPAN SINCE WORLD WAR II. DEPENDENT VARIABLES ARE ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF CRIME (THE CRIME RATE, THE ADULT ARREST RATE, AND THE JUVENILE ARREST RATE); AND THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ARE THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH CRIME CONTROL AND INCREASED ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES (CONTROL MEASURED BY CLEARANCE AND CONVICTION RATES, ECONOMIC OPPORUNTITIES MEASURES BY REAL WAGES, JOB OPENINGS, MODERN INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND INCREASES IN LEVELS OF EDUCATION). THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT LABOR MARKET FACTORS HAVE INFLUENCED THE LEVEL OF CRIME BY LOWERING THE RATE OF RECIDIVISM. ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF JAPAN'S DECLINING CRIME RATE--THE GENERAL DISORGANIZATION OF THE IMMEDIATE POSTWAR YEARS, CHANGES IN POLICE ORGANIZATION, INCREASED LEVELS OF EDUCATION--ARE NOT AS COMPELLING AS THE LABOR MARKET RATIONALE. COMPARISON OF PREWAR AND POSTWAR ECONOMIC AND CRIME STATISTICS SHOWS THAT ONLY IN THE POSTWAR YEARS, WHEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS WERE TAKING PLACE AND AFTER THE CULTURAL SHOCK OF MODERNIZATION HAD PASSED, DID ECONOMIC FACTORS BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE INCIDENCE OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR IN JAPAN FAVORABLY. THE JAPANESE EXPERIENCE, TOGETHER WITH THE BRITISH AND AMERICAN EXPERIENCES IN THE 19TH CENTURY, SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF INTENSE EXPANSION AND JOB CREATION PRECEDE A PHASE OF MATURE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN A CAPITALIST COUNTRY. DURING SUCH MATURE PEIODS, REAL GROWTH IS RELATIVELY SLOW, SOCIAL MOBILITY IS BLOCKED, EXISTING INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS ARE MAINTAINED, AND CRIME RATES BEGIN TO MOVE UPWARD. JAPAN APPEARS TO BE AT OR NEAR THE END OF ITS PHASE OF RAPID GROWTH. THE CAPITALIST ECONOMIES OF THE WEST HAVE PASSED INTO THE MATURE PHASE, AND ARE EXPERIENCING THE ASSOCIATED RISING LEVELS OF CRIME. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT JAPAN, TOO, MAY FIND ITS CRIME RATES RISING IN THE YEARS AHEAD. SUPPORTING DATA ARE INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--LKM)