NCJ Number
144738
Journal
Federal Probation Volume: 57 Issue: 2 Dated: (June 1993) Pages: 3-10
Date Published
1993
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This analysis of Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Survey (NCS) data found that increased incarceration levels did not reduce violent crime rates as predicted.
Abstract
Age adjustment methods were applied to both UCR and NCS data for 1980-1992. The data were then plotted in order to compare trend lines between violent crime rates and incarceration rates. Violence levels reported in UCR data rose by 27.1 percent between 1980 and 1992. When data were adjusted for age shifts, violence levels actually increased by 36.2 percent. NCS data, however, revealed that violence levels declined by 12.5 percent over the 1980-1992 period. When these rates were adjusted for age shifts, violence levels showed a much smaller decrease of 3.6 percent. During the 1981-1992 period, the UCR violence rate went through two distinct periods. First, as incarceration rose by 25 percent from 1981 to 1984, violent crime fell by 9 percent. Second, as incarceration increased by 78 percent from 1985 to 1992, violent crime increased by 42 percent. The authors conclude that incarceration is not necessarily a cost-effective way of reducing crime. Enforcement that makes the lives of violent offenders riskier and prospects of incarceration greater may accomplish such worthwhile goals as punishment or expression of moral outrage, but accomplishing these goals should not be equated with the view that incarceration has a definitive and significant effect on violence prevention. Alternative approaches to punishing offenders, such as intermediate sanctions, may be more cost-effective and suitable for many property and drug offenders who disproportionately occupy prisons and jails. 9 notes, 1 table, and 4 figures