Bayesian Approach to Estimate Skeletal Age-at-Death Utilizing Dental Wear

• NCJ Number: 223383
• Journal: Journal of Forensic Sciences Volume: 53 Issue: 3 Dated: May 2008 Pages: 588-593
• Author(s): Debra A. Prince Ph.D.; Erin H. Kimmerle Ph.D.; Lyle W. Konigsberg Ph.D.
• Date Published: May 2008
• Length: 6 pages
• Grant Number(s): BCS-9727386
• Sponsoring Agency: National Science Foundation; University of Tennessee
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Focusing on dental wear (erosion of the occlusal or incisal surface of teeth or the contact points between teeth due to chewing) of skeletonized victims found in the Balkans, this research estimated age-at-death with a Bayesian statistical method and transition analysis based on the Gompertz-Makeham (GM) hazard model.

Abstract

With a few exceptions, the overall trend showed that tooth wear increased with age. One exception was that several individuals over the age of 50 were categorized as having very little wear or no wear, and several individuals under 20 years old showed heavy dental wear. One table presents statistics for the transition analysis in dental wear, which include the mean age of transition from one phase to the next and the standard deviations for each phase. Another table shows the most likely age-at-death for each phase, which was estimated from the posterior distributions of dental wear, along with the lower and upper bounds of each phase for the 50-percent and 90-percent highest posterior density regions. A series of figures depict the Bayesian estimates for the probability of age-at-death at the 90-percent highest posterior density. The report cautions that biological and cultural variations in different populations are important considerations in dental wear. Consequently, dental age estimation models must recognize that there are many factors in the progression of dental wear other than tooth-on-tooth contact from chewing. The advantages of estimating age-at-death from dental wear include a relatively quick analysis suitable for large collections, the postmortem longevity of teeth, and the nondestructiveness of the method. The sample consisted of 420 single-rooted teeth of known age and sex from individuals identified in the Kosovo Balkan region. Dental-wear phases were scored according to Smith's eight-phase ordinal scoring method and chart. 3 tables, 8 figures, and 53 references