NCJ Number
108776
Date Published
1987
Length
65 pages
Annotation
The South Carolina Department of Corrections has developed a highly sophisticated management information system that includes capabilities for forecasting future inmate populations for the purposes of budget preparation and long-term capital improvement and that permits policy simulations for assessing the effects of proposed policy and statutory changes.
Abstract
The forecasting model includes capabilities for estimating future admissions, releases from existing and future populations, and effects of policy changes on future population. It is unique in its procedures for estimating time served and release dates, its software, and the organizational environment for maintaining the inmate information system. The policy simulation capability permits manipulation of eight parameters. These include work credit and good time accrual rates, parole eligibility and maxout coefficients, parole probability coefficients for existing population and for future admissions, additional months to serve of future admissions as a function of parole set-off, and rate of future admissions. This permits an estimation of the impact of proposed legislation that affects any of these parameters. An evaluation of the forecasting and simulation systems indicates that they are a productive and vital resource. The systems possess sufficient predictive validity to be an essential tool in the department's policymaking process. Figures and 15 tables.