NCJ Number
143198
Journal
Inside Psychology Volume: 1 Issue: 1 Dated: (November 1992) Pages: 29-33
Date Published
1992
Length
5 pages
Annotation
Certain phenomenon occurring in correctional facilities - - a rash of suicides, absconding, or fire-setting -- will lead to extensive internal inquiries, reports, and recommendations; reporting in the press; and governmental investigations.
Abstract
However, analysts must be wary of accepting that the data suggest a real change, as randomly occurring events tend to cluster together, resulting in a preponderance of shorter intervals even if the underlying rate is unchanged. Examination of an apparent clustering of rare but serious events is useful to identify real, nonrandom changes in the rate of these events and to recognize whether or not contagious effects are operating. Four sets of epidemic-like data (from events occurring in Great Britain) are presented: absconds from open Youth Custody Centers, incidents of self- injury in a women's prison, suicides at a local prison, and fires at a dispersal prison. Various ways of examining the data, and potential pitfalls for statistical analysis, are described. 12 figures