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ANALYSIS OF THE TIME SERIES OF THE IMPRISONMENT RATE IN THE STATES OF THE UNITED STATES - A FURTHER TEST OF THE STABILITY OF PUNISHMENT HYPOTHESIS

NCJ Number
61506
Journal
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume: 70 Issue: 3 Dated: (1979) Pages: 376-390
Author(s)
A BLUMSTEIN; S MOITRA
Date Published
1979
Length
15 pages
Annotation
THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE LEVEL OF PUNISHMENT AND IMPRISONMENT RATE PER CAPITA IS MAINTAINED AT A CONSTANT LEVEL IS EXPLORED THROUGH AN EXAMINATION OF IMPRISONMENT RATES OF THE INDIVIDUAL STATES.
Abstract
IT IS HYPOTHESIZED THAT SUCH A STABLE IMPRISONMENT RATE SUGGESTS PRESSURE IS GENERATED TO MAINTAIN A CERTAIN RATE. IF PRISON POPULATIONS GET TOO LARGE, POLICE CAN CHOOSE NOT TO ARREST, PROSECUTORS NOT TO PRESS CHARGES, AND JUDGES NOT TO IMPRISON. SIMILARLY, IF THE POPULATION OF PRISONS DROPS BELOW THE STABLE RATE, THEN PRESSURE WOULD DEVELOP TO BEAR DOWN ON CERTAIN KINDS OF ACTIVITY THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN TOLERATED. DATA USED IN THIS ANALYSIS WERE THE AVERAGE DAILY PRISON POPULATION AND THE TOTAL POPULATION FOR EACH STATE FOR EACH YEAR FROM 1926 TO 1974. DATA ON STATE POPULATIONS WERE DEVELOPED BY LINEAR INTERPOLATION BETWEEN THE DECENNIAL CENSUS YEAR; DATA ON PRISON POPULATIONS WERE COLLECTED FROM THE DEPARTMENTS OF CORRECTIONS IN 47 STATES. TIME TRENDS WERE EXAMINED THROUGH USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS; DISCERNIBLE PATTERNS THROUGH TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS. IN EXAMINING THE TRENDS IN STATES PER CAPITA IMPRISONMENT RATES, RESEARCHERS NOTED THAT ALMOST HALF WERE STATIONARY, AND THAT THE TRENDS IN THE REMAINING STATES WERE SMALL. THESE FINDINGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE HYPOTHESIS OF THE GENERAL HOMEOSTATIC PROCESS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED IN THE UNITED STATES AS WELL AS IN OTHER COUNTRIES. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT FUTURE ANALYSES FOCUS ON IDENTIFICATION OF THE ADAPTIVE MECHANISMS BY WHICH THE HOMEOSTATIC LEVEL IS MAINTAINED AND OF THE CAUSES OF THE OBSERVED VARIATION IN THE MEAN IMPRISONMENT RATE ACROSS THE STATES. FOOTNOTES, EXTENSIVE STATISTICAL DATA, GRAPHS, AND FORMULAS ARE INCLUDED IN THE ARTICLE. (LWM)

Grant Number(s)
1 R01 MH28437-01
Sponsoring Agency
US Dept of Health, Education, and Welfare
Address

5600 Fishers Lane, Rockville, MD 20852, United States

Corporate Author
Northwestern University
Address

357 East Chicago Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611, United States

Publication Format
Article
Publication Type
Statistics
Language
English
Country
United States of America