ANALYSIS OF THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE DEATH PENALTY IN NORTH CAROLINA

• NCJ Number: 69082
• Journal: North Carolina Central Law Journal Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Dated: (FALL 1978) Pages: 29-52
• Author(s): W C BAILEY
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 24 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION ON HOMICIDE RATES IN NORTH CAROLINA IS PRESENTED; RELATIVE TABULAR DATA FROM 1910 THROUGH 1962 ARE CONSIDERED.

Abstract

THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS OF A SIGNIFICANT INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION AND HOMICIDE RATES HAS RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN RECENT YEARS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SITUATION, DATA RELATING TO EXECUTION AND HOMICIDE RATES IN NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN EXAMINED. THREE MODELS OF THE EXECUTION RATE-HOMICIDE RATE RELATIONSHIP WERE CONSIDERED, AND TWO MEASURES OF OFFENSE RATES WERE EXAMINED. TO CONTROL FOR THE POSSIBLE SPURIOUSNESS OF THE FINDINGS FOR THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION VARIABLE, SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS ASSOCIATION WITH HOMICIDE RATES WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE ANALYSIS AS CONTROL VARIABLES. BOTH THE POSSIBLE LINEAR AND NONLINEAR RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE EXECUTION AND HOMICIDE RATES WERE CONSIDERED. ANALYSIS RESULTED IN A VERY CONSISTENT PATTERN OF FINDINGS. CONTRARY TO THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS, CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION WAS NOT FOUND TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT INVERSE RELATIONSHIP TO HOMICIDE RATES. CHANGES IN THE CERTAINTY OF EXECUTION AND HOMICIDE RATES WERE FOUND TO BE GENERALLY UNRELATED FACTORS. IN CONTRAST, CHANGES IN THE SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND CONDITIONS OF THE STATE WERE SIGNIFICANTLY RELATED TO CHANGES IN HOMICIDE RATES. FOREMOST AMONG THESE VARIABLES WERE PERCENT MALE POPULATION AND PERCENT URBAN POPULATION, FOLLOWED BY PERCENT UNEMPLOYED AND PERCENT OF THE POPULATION 20 TO 40 YEARS OF AGE. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT USE OF THE DEATH PENALTY DOES NOT PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE MEANS OF DETERRING MURDER FOR THE PERIOD EVALUATED. RATHER, MEASURES AIMED AT IMPROVING SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND OTHER NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF UNEMPLOYMENT WOULD APPEAR TO HOLD MORE PROMISE. TABLES AND FOOTNOTES ARE PROVIDED IN THE ARTICLE. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)