NCJ Number
129767
Journal
Science Volume: 251 Issue: 5001 Dated: (March 1991) Pages: 1568-1573
Date Published
1991
Length
6 pages
Annotation
This analysis of historical trends in State prison populations concludes that the factors widely reported to explain record increases in inmate populations since 1973 were not substantiated in national data.
Abstract
The analysis used information from records on offenders admitted and released and from interviews with samples of inmates in 1974 and 1986. No clear evidence was found that prosecutors were increasingly using mandatory prison sentencing laws, that judges were imposing longer prison sentences than previously, or that parole boards were making prisoners serve longer before their first release. In addition, demographic changes, changes in police-recorded crime and arrest rates, and the war on drugs have had only a modest impact on inmate populations. However, one change that has had a major impact has been the increased chance of a prison sentence after arrest for nearly every type of crime. Victimization surveys also show that the rising incarceration rates have been accompanied by gradual reductions in crime rates since 1973. Therefore, debates about prisons in the United States must consider the possibility that rising incarceration rates are helping to reduce crime. Tables and 26 references (Author abstract modified)