NCJ Number
48803
Journal
Management Science Volume: 24 Issue: 12 Dated: (AUGUST 1978) Pages: 1314-1327
Date Published
1978
Length
14 pages
Annotation
IN THIS ALGORITHM FOR DEPLOYING A CRIME-DIRECTED POLICE PATROL FORCE, THE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM IS FORMULATED TO MAXIMIZE THE WEIGHTED PROBABILITY OF PATROL INTERCEPTION OF A CRIME.
Abstract
THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF A POLICE PATROL FORCE IS FORMULATED AS FOLLOWS: ALLOCATE A CERTAIN NUMBER OF PATROL UNITS AMONG SPECIFIED HIGH CRIME REGIONS TO MAXIMIZE THE WEIGHTED PROBABILITY OF A PATROL-INITIATED INTERCEPTION OF A RANDOM CRIME. DIFFERENT CRIME CATEGORIES AND OVERALL CRIME RATES AFFECT OPTIMAL ALLOCATION, AND A PREREQUISITE FOR MEASURING GAINS GENERATED BY AN OPTIMAL DEPLOYMENT PLAN IS THE EXISTENCE OF A STANDARD FOR COMPARISON. DATA REQUIRED BY THE ALGORITHM ARE CATEGORIZED ACCORDING TO REGION AND CRIME TYPE. THE MOST CRITICAL ASSUMPTION UNDERLYING THE APPLICATION OF SEARCH THEORY EMBODIED IN THE ALGORITHM TO POLICE PATROL IS THAT THE LOCATION OF A CRIME IN A REGION IS ESSENTIALLY INDEPENDENT OF THE LOCATION OF A PATROL UNIT. A RELATED ASSUMPTION IS THAT THE FREQUENCY OF CRIME IN DIFFERENT REGIONS IS NOT IMMEDIATELY AFFECTED BY THE DEPLOYMENT OF A PATROL UNIT. INPUT DATA TO THE ALGORITHM INCLUDE CRIME WEIGHTS, CRIME FREQUENCY, AND THE DURATION AND OBSERVABILITY OF CRIMES. A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS CAPABILITY IS PROVIDED BY THE ALGORITHM, AND THIS CAPABILITY IS AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT OF THE DEPLOYMENT METHODOLOGY. THE GOALS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ARE TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH THE FREQUENCY OF A PARTICULAR CRIME TYPE IN A REGION CAN VARY BEFORE AFFECTING THE OPTIMALITY OF DEPLOYMENT AND TO IDENTIFY CRIME TYPE-REGION PAIRS TO WHICH AN OPTIMAL DEPLOYMENT SOLUTION IS MOST SENSITIVE. POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ALGORITHM CONCERN PATROL UNIT DEPLOYMENT FOR CRIMES IN PROGRESS AND THE DEPLOYMENT OF A STANDARD PATROL FORCE TO MAXIMIZE ITS ARREST PROBABILITIES. THE MATHEMATICAL OPTIMAL ALLOCATION FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM IS DETAILED. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (DEP)