NCJ Number
190243
Journal
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume: 88 Issue: 4 Dated: Summer 1998 Pages: 1369-1398
Date Published
1998
Length
30 pages
Annotation
This paper examined the relationship between the recent decline in homicide and the rate of alcohol consumption in the United States from 1934 to 1995, the homicide and alcohol relationship by race and type of alcoholic beverage, and historical and theoretical perspectives.
Abstract
In the last few years there had been a great deal of attention directed to the apparent decline in rates of homicide and other types of violent crimes in the United States and the reasons for the decline. This paper explored the possible connection between the decline in homicide and the rate of alcohol consumption, as well as the impact of other indicators (race and type of alcoholic beverage) through a multivariate time series analysis of homicide. In addition, the paper proposed that historically, declining homicide rates followed decreasing alcohol consumption, and reviewed theoretical arguments explaining why alcohol would be a causal factor in homicide and other forms of violence. Findings suggested that declining alcohol consumption had something to do with the declining rate of homicide in the United States. Evidence was found for the effects of alcohol on white and non-white homicide, although more for the white than non-white homicide. Research on the impact of availability on consumption had shown that availability in general had a significant positive relationship to consumption and that increased availability led to increased consumption, and that decreased availability of alcohol leads to reduced rates of violence. In summation, alcohol consumption was leading rates of homicide downward and there were many reasons to explain this decline in addition to alcohol consumption. It was identified that effective regulation may stabilize or further reduce consumption, resulting in fewer homicide deaths. Tables and graphs