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Alcohol and Homicide in Eastern Europe: A Time Series Analysis of Six Countries

NCJ Number
221601
Journal
Homicide Studies Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2008 Pages: 7-27
Author(s)
Elin K. Bye
Date Published
February 2008
Length
21 pages
Annotation
This study assessed the association between changes in alcohol consumption and homicide rates in various Eastern European countries.
Abstract
The results revealed a significant relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide rates for Eastern European countries; a one-liter increase in alcohol consumption would yield a 5-percent increase in homicide rates. Of the six countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Russia, and Belarus) alcohol consumption had a positive and significant relationship with homicide in three (Russia, Belarus, Czechoslovakia), and the pooled alcohol effect was stronger in the countries with the highest hazardous drinking pattern than in the countries with less hazardous drinking pattern. Russia and Belarus had an upward trend in both alcohol sales and homicide rates until the anti-alcohol campaign introduced by Gorbachev in 1985 through 1988. Although the relative alcohol effect in former Czechoslovakia was twice as large as Belarus, the homicide rates in Belarus were seven times higher, indicating an absolute stronger effect. High levels of alcohol consumption and homicide rates in Russia have been linked to social stress and anomie due to worsening of the social and economic conditions after the collapse of the Soviet Union. An interaction between alcohol consumption and other factors was stronger in Russia compared to the former Czechoslovakia, leading to more violent behavior when in combination with unemployment and poverty, as in Russia. Alcohol-related aggression is known to vary greatly according to culture because of different drunken behavior and norms concerning drunken comportment. There is a social tolerance for heavy drinking in Russia, whereas in Czechoslovakia, pubic drinking is less acceptable. The alcohol effect on homicide rates for men and women was approximately the same, and much higher in men and women from Eastern Europe than those from Western Europe. Data were collected from World Health Organization (WHO) statistics. Tables, references