NCJ Number
113018
Journal
Sociological Spectrum Volume: 8 Issue: 3 Dated: (1988) Pages: 237-255
Date Published
1988
Length
19 pages
Annotation
Criminologists have sought to tie crime rates to the age composition of the population. Foreseeing a decrease in the number of persons in the crime-prone years (ages 15 to 24), they predicted a declining crime rate in the early 1980's associated with the increasing age of the 'baby boom' generation.
Abstract
Age-composition theories recently have drawn criticism for three major problems. Crime-rate patterns for the past 16 years have not exhibited the linearity expected from the basic theory's prediction. Crime rates have fluctuated and are again increasing -- a change occurring somewhat sooner than expected. The apparent association between population age composition and national crime rates is less apparent at the local and urban level. In addition, some have argued that more punitive criminal justice sanctions have had as much to do with crime rate changes in the 1980's as age effects. While the age-composition thesis remains viable, it faces sufficient challenges to make its uncritical acceptance impossible. While the correlation of age and criminal involvement seems well-documented, empirically grounded theories of aging and crime are needed. Similarly, while cohort effects may influence crime rate-changes, the reasons for these effects are unclear. Finally, period effects are not easily disentangled from age and cohort effects. Until these basic conceptual and theoretical issues are resolved, the age-composition thesis can be neither accepted or rejected with confidence. 66 references.