NCJ Number
100153
Date Published
1985
Length
40 pages
Annotation
A stochastic entity-simulation model was used to project Illinois prison populations for 1985 and 1986 and to provide a 10-year projection (through 1994).
Abstract
The population projection model uses a probability simulation technique to trace inmate cases through the correctional process by assigning probabilities to determine admissions, lengths of stay, and inmate population. Probabilities are based on 1984 data and the impact of current correctional policies. The projected prison population at the end of fiscal 1985 is 17,672. For 1986, the projected population is 18,704. These figures represent reductions of the previous population projections, which required revision as a result of a decrease in 1984 admissions and an overestimation of the impact of suspension of the meritorious good time policy. To date, the revised projections are tracking well with a .05-percent variance for the monthly average. The projected population for 1994 is 21,583. Trends in Index crime rates, Index crime arrests, as well as felony dispositions, convictions, and sentences are provided to put population projections in perspective.