NCJ Number
243016
Journal
Justice Quarterly Volume: 30 Issue: 2 Dated: April 2013 Pages: 270-296
Date Published
April 2013
Length
27 pages
Annotation
This paper discusses the concerns associated with the introduction of, and increased reliance on, actuarial risk tools in sentencing.
Abstract
This paper discusses the concerns associated with the introduction of, and increased reliance on, actuarial risk tools in sentencing in order to: (1) stimulate cross-disciplinary dialog and research about the impact of incorporating actuarial risk logic into sentencing processes and (2) identify questions requiring further empirical examination. In this article, the author recognized that actuarial risk logic offered managerial and organizational benefits, but also demonstrated that the application of actuarial risk when sentencing offenders was not without important consequences. First, the author provided a brief outline of the emergence, logic, and entrenchment of probabilistic reasoning within criminal justice decisionmaking, and the more recent extension and application of actuarial risk logic to sentencing. Then, the author used the following themes to define the limits of using risk sciences in sentencing: (1) the logical structure of risk; (2) the slippage between risk prediction and individual causation; (3) current methodological limits of risk science; (4) the potential for gender and race discrimination; (5) the legal relevance and transparency of risk-based sentencing; and (6) the jurisprudential and organizational impact of various risk technologies. Importantly, the nature and severity of these complications will vary by, and within, the jurisdiction (or sentencing regime) because current sentencing practices are influenced by local jurisdictional needs and sentencing laws. Abstract published by arrangement with Taylor and Francis.