NCJ Number
206454
Date Published
2004
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This chapter summarizes the developments in criminal justice that have embraced the prediction of dangerousness in contemporary criminal process and locates them in developments of the law more generally.
Abstract
"Actuarial justice" attempts to predict the future criminal behavior of a person currently being adjudicated in the criminal justice system and then to implement policies toward that person that will reduce his/her ability to commit future crimes. One intervention that has emerged from the tactics of actuarial justice is selective incapacitation, which holds that if prison can do nothing else, it can detain dangerous people in a secure environment to prevent and/or delay their criminal activity. The large-scale application of selective incapacitation can then have a significant aggregate effect on a reduction in criminal victimization. The aggregate effects of such a policy depend on the accuracy of risk profiles generated by collating factors that correlate with dangerousness. Another product of actuarial justice is pretrial detention, which results from a decision that the person is at high risk of committing another crime or failing to appear voluntarily for future case proceedings. Actuarial justice applies as well in probation and parole case management, as probation and parole agencies collect a continuous flow of data on their clients to determine the various levels of custody and surveillance they will use with individual offenders. In a less obvious field, actuarial procedures are being used in the development of security for more and more private spaces. The owners and managers of private spaces are using an increasing variety of security measures in both the design and monitoring of private spaces to restrain and prevent behaviors of groups deemed at risk for disorder and crime. In the area of criminal law and procedure, actuarial justice is evident in the proliferation of offenses that impose strict liability, expand presumptions, and embrace prohibitions against endangerment. Other areas of criminal law and procedures that manifest aspects of actuarial justice are corporate criminal liability, the forfeiture of assets, and developments in criminal procedure and the displacement of probable cause. Although these relatively new developments stemming from actuarial justice are significant, the more traditional understandings of law, particularly criminal law, are still prevalent. The current emphasis on retributive justice that tailors and restricts sentencing to the nature and severity of the offense at issue obstructs sentencing decisions based on crimes that might be committed in the future. An assessment of long-term trends, however, suggests that actuarial justice will have a greater role in criminal law and criminal justice policies. Still, the question remains open as to whether it will fully displace concern with intent and harm related to the offense that spawned criminal proceedings. 18 notes and 43 references