NCJ Number
104545
Date Published
1984
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This study develops and estimates a model of caseload as a multiplicative, lagged function of the number of cases arriving and the speed with which they are processed.
Abstract
Data for testing the model were obtained from Detroit Recorder's Court, the municipal criminal court, for April 1976 through March 1978. The model closely fits the data. The practical use of the model is to predict caseloads. Given parameter estimates, the model requires the input of actual or anticipated mean processing times and numbers of new cases in each of a series of 7 consecutive months to project the caseload at the end of the eighth month. Similarly, the increments or decrements that would occur in response to changes in the number of arraignments or mean processing time can also be estimated. Such estimates enable a court to anticipate its workload more accurately and control it through the number of incoming cases or the disposition time. The model approximates an averaging out of the underlying near-accounting relationships, which suggests the model's replicability in any court where appropriate data are availabe. 11 notes and 25 references.