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Supervision Intensity and Parole Outcomes: A Competing Risks Approach to Criminal and Technical Parole Violations

NCJ Number
Justice Quarterly Dated: 2014
Date Published
June 2014
2 pages
This study used "competing risks" survival models to identify supervision effects on five types of parole violations among 79,082 individuals released from prison in California: absconding, technical violations, drug use, violent offenses, and sexual offenses.
Recent scholarship about parole supervision indicates that higher supervision intensity is associated with an increased risk of parole violations; however, parole violations can take many formssome minor and some seriousand theory suggests that supervision intensity might have differential effects depending upon the type of violation. The current study found that effects are strongest for absconding violations. Past sexual offending also triggers significant supervision effects for technical violations, drug use violations, and violent violations. The study concludes that parole violation patterns are influenced by parolee behaviors, the amount of attention the state is paying to those behaviors, and official markers of criminal dangerousness that are attached to particular parolees. (Publisher abstract modified)

Date Published: June 1, 2014