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Predictive Policing: A Forecasting and Prevention Model - Interview at the 2010 NIJ Conference

NCJ Number
Date Published
June 2010
2 pages
This video and its transcript cover an interview with Greg Ridgeway - director of the Safety and Justice Center on Quality Policing - at the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) 2010 Conference, in which he discusses the benefits of predictive policing in the deployment of scarce resources and the importance of cooperation among predictive analysts and designers of crime prevention strategies.
Using statistical analysis to examine existing geographical distributions and concentrations of various crime types requires reactive policing that responds to crime patterns that existed at the time when the relevant data were collected and analyzed. There is a time-lag between the identification of types and rates of crime at a particular location and a tactical deployment of police resources based on the time-limited crime analysis. Crime forecasting, on the other hand, attempts to identify and analyze factors in neighborhoods and locations that are known precursors for particular crime types, such as drug dealing, burglaries, and gang activity. This data and analysis can be used to forecast where particular types of resources are required to prevent crime by countering or neutralizing the factors known to foster various crime types. This strategy requires cooperation between analysts who identify and quantify neighborhood factors that contribute to certain criminal behavior and practitioners who are knowledgeable and experienced in planning crime-specific prevention strategies and countermeasures.

Date Published: June 1, 2010