WHAT'S NEW ABOUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE EVALUATION RESEARCH?

• NCJ Number: 53112
• Author(s): S NAGEL
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 23 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Ford Foundation; Illinois Law Enforcement Cmssn (see Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority)
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: PRESENTED AT THE SECOND NATIONAL WORKSHOP ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE EVALUATION, WASHINGTON, DC, NOVEMBER 20-21, 1978

Annotation

EVALUATION MODELS FOR DEDUCING THE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES BEFORE THEIR ADOPTION ARE DISCUSSED, ALONG WITH AN EVALUATION PROCEDURE FOR DETERMINING AN OPTIMUM POLICY FOR ACHIEVING DEFINED GOALS.

Abstract

TWO RELATIVELY NEW VARIATIONS ON TRADITIONAL EVALUATION RESEARCH IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE FIELD ARE CONSIDERED. ONE NEW DEVELOPMENT AIMS AT DEDUCING THE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES BEFORE THEIR ADOPTION, AS CONTRASTED TO THE MORE USUAL APPROACH OF EVALUATING POLICIES BEFORE AND AFTER THEY HAVE BEEN ADOPTED. THIS DEDUCTIVE MODELING INVOLVES DETERMINING THE EFFECTS OF POLICIES FROM EMPIRICALLY TESTED PREMISES, ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS OF THE PREMISES MAY NOT HAVE BEEN EMPIRICALLY TESTED. WHILE IT IS INDICATED THAT VARIOUS TYPES OF DEDUCTIVE MODELING MIGHT BE INVOLVED IN SUCH AN APPROACH, THE CLASSIFICATION CONSIDERED HAS TO DO WITH PREMISES RELATED TO TYPES OF DECISIONMAKING. SPECIFICALLY CONSIDERED ARE: (1) MODELS OF GROUP DECISIONMAKING, SUCH AS EFFECTS ON CONVICTION RATES OF CHANGING THE SIZE OF JURIES; (2) MODELS OF BILATERAL DECISIONMAKING, SUCH AS THE EFFECTS ON THE JAIL POPULATION OF INCREASED PRETRIAL RELEASE WHICH FEEDS THROUGH THE PLEA BARGAINING SYSTEM; AND (3) MODELS OF INDIVIDUAL DECISIONMAKING, SUCH AS THE EFFECTS OF REQUIRING JUDGES TO PUBLICIZE THEIR DECISIONAL PROPENSITIES AND OTHER PERFORMANCE INDICATORS. A SECOND NEW DEVELOPMENT DEALS WITH DETERMINING AN OPTIMUM POLICY OR COMBINATION OF POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING A GIVEN GOAL OR SET OF GOALS. THIS APPROACH IS TO BE CONTRASTED WITH THE MORE COMMON ONE WHERE POLICIES ARE ESTABLISHED FIRST AND THE EVALUATOR ATTEMPTS TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH DESIRED GOALS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED. THE MODELS DISCUSSED DEAL WITH THE FOLLOWING GENERAL SITUATIONS: (1) DETERMINING OPTIMUM POLICY LEVEL WHERE DOING TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE MAY BE UNDESIRABLE; (2) DETERMINING OPTIMUM POLICY WHERE SCARCE RESOURCES NEED TO BE ALLOCATED; AND (3) DETERMINING OPTIMUM CHOICE AMONG DISCRETE ALTERNATIVES, ESPECIALLY UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY. IT IS BELIEVED THE APPROACHES SUGGESTED CAN HELP TO AVOID THE METHODOLOGICAL AND NORMATIVE DEFECTS OF THE TRADITIONAL CROSS-SECTIONAL OR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF POLICIES OR TREATMENTS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)