NCJ Number
58602
Journal
AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE ANNALS Volume: 430, Dated: (MARCH 1977) Pages: 44-57
Date Published
1977
Length
14 pages
Annotation
EVENTS THAT COULD OCCUR IF TERRORISTS AND REVOLUTIONARIES WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE OR DISPERSAL CAPABILITIES ARE DISCUSSED IN THIS ARTICLE.
Abstract
WHETHER TERRORISTS WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A NUCLEAR CAPABILITY DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS: THE SYMPATHIES AND POLITICAL STABILITY OF REGIMES POSSESSING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, SAFEGUARDS APPLIED BY NUCLEAR NATIONS TO THEIR NUCLEAR PLANTS AND MATERIALS, AND THE DURABILITY OF THESE SAFEGUARDS OVER TIME. IF THE NUMBER OF NUCLEAR NATIONS CONTINUES TO GROW, THE LIKELIHOOD OF INSTABILITY IN A NUCLEAR STATE, WHERE NUCLEAR WEAPONS COULD BE LOST OR GIVEN AWAY TO TERRORISTS, WILL INCREASE. THE CONSEQUENCES ARE SUBSTANTIAL SINCE NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY WOULD PROVIDE TERRORISTS WITH A LEVER FOR THREATENING OR CARRYING OUT ACTS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AGAINST SOCIETY. IN ADDITION, RETALIATION WOULD BE INEFFECTIVE AGAINST TERRORISTS WHO ARE UNIDENTIFIED OR UNLOCATABLE. IN THE ENSUING STATE OF PANIC, AND INTERNATIONAL WAR COULD BE TRIGGERED, ESPECIALLY IF TERRORISTS DELIBERATELY MISIDENTIFY THEMSELVES. IN THE UNITED STATES, A TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED NATION WITH AN ESTABLISHED NUCLEAR PROGRAM, EFFORTS TO CREATE SAFEGUARDS TO PREVENT NUCLEAR THEFT HAVE MET WITH LITTLE CONGRESSIONAL RESPONSE. SINCE THE ONLY SOLUTION TO NUCLEAR THEFT INVOLVES PERFECT SAFEGUARDS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND MATERIALS, THE PROSPECT OF THEFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OTHER WEAPONS FOR TERRORISTS TO USE INCLUDE RADIATION DISPERSAL DEVICES WHICH ARE FAR EASIER TO PREPARE THAN BOMBS, YET ARE ALARMINGLY POTENT. THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FORCING THE EVACUATION OF A LARGE AREA AND THE COSTLY AND LENGTHY DECONTAMINATION PROCEDURES INVOLVED COULD MAKE RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ATTRACTIVE TO TERRORISTS. THE DANGERS OF A MAJOR PLUTONIUM RELEASE ARE DETAILED. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, AS POTENTIAL TARGETS FOR TERRORISTS, ARE DISCUSSED AND BRIEF SCENARIOS FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS ARE PROVIDED. SOME REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (WJR)