NCJ Number
93160
Date Published
1983
Length
8 pages
Annotation
Longitudinal studies of males born in 1945 and 1958 who resided in Philadelphia at least from age 10 to age 18 reveal that both cohorts started their criminal careers as juveniles and that the 1958 cohort committed more crimes and much more serious crimes than the earlier group.
Abstract
Cohort I, the sample for the first longitudinal study of delinquency in the United States, contained 9,945 male subjects who were tracked through school, police, and Selective Service files to determine if they were ever arrested for delinquent acts. The Cohort II study replicated the first project's methodology, but encompassed 28,338 cases, reflected a more even racial distribution, and included females. The cohorts showed a similar prevalence of delinquency, with 32.6 percent of Cohort II classified as delinquent compared to 34.9 percent in the first group. Nonwhites in both groups were more likely to be delinquent, recidivists, and chronically delinquent than whites. Cohort II's overall offense rate was higher than that of Cohort I and much higher for a selected group of serious offenses. Nonwhites in Cohort II have become twice as violent as those in Cohort I, but whites have become four times as violent. Cohort II index offenses contain proportionally fewer thefts, but about twice as many more violent and robbery offenses. Chronic offenders (persons committing five or more offenses) born in 1958 committed 61 percent of all offenses and almost 70 percent of offenses in the recidivist subset, compared to 52 percent and 60 percent respectively for Cohort I. Chronic offenders were responsible for a majority of serious crime, although they were a minority of the juvenile offenders. The author recommends reducing the juvenile statute age from 18 to 16, making juvenile records of persons who reach 18 and are convicted of any crime available to the sentencing judge, using community alternatives rather than incarceration for offenders convicted of nonviolent offenses, and imprisoning all violent offenders over 16 years old. The article includes one footnote.