NCJ Number
46563
Journal
INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL POLICE REVIW Volume: 32 Issue: 312 Dated: (NOVEMBER 1977) Pages: 278-289
Date Published
1977
Length
12 pages
Annotation
AN EXAMINATION IS UNDERTAKEN OF VARIOUS MODELING TECHNIQUES USED BY SOCIAL SCIENTISTS IN THE PREDICTION OF CRIME PATTERNS.
Abstract
BOTH SIMPLE MODELS THAT USE AVERAGES AS PREDICTORS AND MORE COMPLEX AND SOPHISTICATED MODELS USING SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ARE INTRODUCED. IN THE CRUDEST SENSE IT IS POSSIBLE TO PREDICT CRIME TRENDS THROUGH HEURISTIC MODELS WHICH USE THE INCREASE OF A PAST YEAR OVER THE IMMEDIATE PREVIOUS YEAR TO PROJECT THE PERCENTAGE OF CHANGE FOR THE COMING YEAR. APPLICATION OF THIS METHOD TO HISTORICAL DATA CONFIRMS A WIDE RANGE OF INACCURACIES SINCE CHANGE IS NOT CONSTANT. REGRESSION MODELING IS CONCERNED WITH FINDING SOME ALGEBRAIC EXPRESSION BY WHICH TO REPRESENT A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TWO OR MORE CHARACTERISTICS. ONCE REDUCED ALGEBRAICALLY, A GRAPHIC REPRESENTATION IS GENERATED, UNKNOWNS ARE INJECTED, AND VARIABLES ARE MANIPULATED IN A SEARCH FOR A REASONABLE CHARTING OF FUTURE CRIME TRENDS. THE TIME SERIES, OFTEN USED IN THE FIELD OF ECONOMICS, EMPLOYS MUCH THE SAME MANNER OF ALGEBRAIC PREDICTION USED IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS. EACH OF THESE MODELING TECHNIQUES POSSESS OPERATIONAL SHORTCOMINGS: EACH REQUIRES VOLUMINOUS AMOUNTS OF INFORMATION FOR IMMEDIATE PREDICTIONS; THEY DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS, HOURLY OR DAILY FLUCTUATIONS: THEY CONSIDER ANNUAL VALUES AS AN AGGREGATION OF ALL OFFENSES AND WILL NOT WORK FOR LOW VOLUMES; AND THEY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION. IN AN EFFORT TO OVERCOME THESE WEAKNESSES, MANY URBAN POLICE FORCES USE ELECTRONIC DATA PROCESSING (EDP) MODELING. COMPUTER SIMULATION RESULTS ARE ACCURATE AND VARIED, THE MAIN FUNCTION BEING THE FORECAST OF FUTURE DEMANDS TO BE PLACED UPON INDIVIDUAL POLICE DEPARTMENTS. A SIMULATION IS AN ARTIFICIAL REPRESENTATION OF A SYSTEM; IT ATTEMPTS TO DUPLICATE A POLICE PATROL OPERATION BY MEANS OF MATHEMATICAL OPERATIONS CARRIED OUT ON A COMPUTER. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESEARCHERS AND POLICYMAKERS WORK TOGETHER TO IDENTIFY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES FOR PREDICTION METHODS, THAT THEY COOPERATE IN IMPROVING STUDY DESIGN AND ANALYTIC METHODS, AND FURTHER, THAT THE SIMPLER METHODS OF AVERAGES AND LINEAR EQUATIONS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT AND ACCURATE LONG-RANGE PREDICTIONS. GRAPHIC DISPLAYS RELATING TO THE USE OF ALGEBRAIC TECHNIQUES ARE INCLUDED. ASSORTED TABULAR DATA, REFERENCES, AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE PROVIDED. (KBL)