NCJ Number
92462
Date Published
1982
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This development of a decision analysis framework for the planning of arson-control strategies uses the Arson Information Management System (AIMS) to provide information that describes the arson problem and a cost-effectiveness analysis of arson strategies.
Abstract
AIMS indicates the causes/motivation, incidence, and magnitude of arson for each area of the community. Having developed the descriptive data for the entire city, patterns of arson may become evident through data analysis. Arson strategies to be considered for use throughout the city are then devised. It is not necessary that one strategy be selected for use throughout the city. Rather, a given strategy may apply to several districts while other strategies are considered for use with different arson types in other districts. Having defined a set of strategies, the next step involves estimating the effectiveness of each strategy in ameliorating each type of arson using the level of resources assigned. Past experience provided by officials within the targeted jurisdictions, a review of additional AIMS information, or contact with officials in jurisdictions having applied similar strategies may provide data or judgments for assessing the effectiveness of each strategy. The net benefit for implementation of a strategy can be computed as the difference in the arson losses with and without the strategy minus the cost of implementation. The outputs from the decision analysis are the expected outcomes (cost plus loss) measured in terms of the cost for strategy implementation and the loss or consequence of arson measured by the expected number and severity of the fires. Tabular data, diagrams, footnotes, and eight references are provided.