USE OF COMPUTERS FOR LONG RANGE PLANNING IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM (FROM MAPPING AND RELATED APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS TO CANADIAN POLICE WORK, 1977, BY J E WATKIN AND F R LIPSETT - SEE NCJ-47416)

• NCJ Number: 47430
• Author(s): R G CASSIDY; M A LANIEL
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 20 pages
• Corporate Author: National Research Council
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: Canada

Annotation

THIS PAPER PRESENTS A MODEL WHICH COULD BE USED IN A PLANNING AND EVALUATION EXERCISE AND CONCENTRATES ON THE RELATIVE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF COMPUTERS IN PLANNING AND EVALUATING CRIMINAL JUSTICE ACTIVITIES.

Abstract

IN DISCUSSING LONG RANGE PLANNING AND EVALUATION, THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES FOR STRUCTURING THE PROCESS. BY NECESSITY, THE PROCESS SHOULD FOLLOW CERTAIN SPECIFIC STEPS AND SHOULD BE FLEXIBLE AND ADAPT TO POLITICAL REALITIES, EMERGING PROBLEMS IN CRIME CONTROL, ONGOING PROGRAMS AND POLICIES, AND RESOURCE AVAILABILITY. THE FIRST STEP IS IDENTIFICATION OF THE PROBLEM AREA, THE SECOND STEP IS THE DEFINITION OF THE PROBLEM AREA. THE NEXT STEP IN THE PLANNING PROCESS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLICY STATEMENT. THE FOURTH STAGE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES AND GOALS. THE NEXT STEP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRAMS AND OPERATIONAL POLICIES CENTERS ON A REVIEW OF ANY STRATEGIES APPROVED BY SENIOR AGENCY PERSONNEL AND SPECIFIC OPERATIONAL POLICY, GOALS, AND PROGRAMS DEVELOPED TO SUPPORT THE POLICY. THE SIXTH STAGE IS THE ACTUAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION, WHICH NORMALLY TAKES PLACE AS A PART OF THE ANNUAL BUDGETARY CYCLE. THE FINAL STAGE HAS AN IMPACT ON ALL THE PREVIOUS STEPS AND INVOLVES THE MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE PROGRAM OR POLICY. USING COMPUTER SIMULATION IN PLANNING AND EVALUATION EFFORTS IS DESIRABLE FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS, INCLUDING: (1) IT IS IMPOSSIBLE OR EXTREMELY COSTLY TO OBSERVE CERTAIN PROCESSES OR THE RESULTS OF CERTAIN POLICIES IN THE REAL WORLD; (2) THE OBSERVED SYTEM IS TOO COMPLEX TO BE DESCRIBED BY A CLOSED-FORM ANALYTICAL MODEL; (3) NO STRAIGHTFORWARD ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE EXISTS FOR SOLVING THE PROBLEMS FOUND IN SUCH A SYSTEM; AND (4) THE SOCIAL PROCESS UNDER INVESTIGATION IS SUBJECT TO CONTINUOUS CHANGE AND IS HIGHLY NONLINEAR IN ITS BEHAVIOR PATTERNS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF CRUCIAL PROBLEMS OR DRAWBACKS POSED BY SUCH MODELING, INCLUDING: (1) TIMING CANNOT BE COMPROMISED IN TERMS OF INPUT BACK TO THE POLICY PROCESS; (2) THE NEEDS CHANGE FREQUENTLY DURING THE ACTUAL MODELING ITSELF; (3) PROGRAMS THEMSELVES CHANGE AND BECAUSE OF THEIR HIGHLY STRUCTURED NATURE, THE MODELS ARE INFLEXIBLE TO SUCH CHANGE; AND (4) RESULTS ARE OFTEN LIMITED BECAUSE THE MODEL TENDS TO EMPHASIZE WHAT DOES NOT WORK IN A SYSTEM, WHILE FAILING TO SUGGEST WHAT WOULD WORK. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT MODEL DEVELOPMENT HAS FAR OUTSTRIPPED THE ORIGINAL NEED IN MANY CASES; THAT MODELS ARE NOT ALWAYS ORIENTED TO THE ORIGINAL USE TO WHICH THEY WERE ADDRESSED; AND THAT DATA AND METHODOLOGIES FREQUENTLY PRESENT TANGIBLE DIFFICULTIES. EXTENSIVE REFERENCES ARE CITED. (KBL)