NCJ Number
15094
Date Published
1974
Length
16 pages
Annotation
CONCLUSIONS FROM A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDE DATA IN EACH OF THE 50 LARGEST U.S. CITIES FOR FOUR SELECTED YEARS AND FROM CONSIDERATION OF THE NATIONAL AGGREGATE HOMICIDE RATE THE LAST FORTY YEARS.
Abstract
FOUR MODELS FOR PLOTTING THE EVOLUTION OF HOMICIDE RATES ARE PROPOSED, COVERING THE RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE BEHAVIOR TO EXPLAIN THE INCREASE. IN ONE MODEL THE CURRENT PERIOD OF GROWTH IS CONSIDERED AN ABERRATION WHICH WILL SOON END, AFTER WHICH MURDER RATES IN EACH CITY WILL DROP AND REMAIN AT MID-1950 LEVELS. A SECOND MODEL ASSUMES THE CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE FUTURE. A THIRD MODEL ASSUMES THAT HOMICIDE RATES WILL STABILIZE AT A SATURATION LEVEL ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE PRESENT LEVELS. THE FOURTH MODEL PROJECTS AN ANNUAL GROWTH OF .4 MURDERS PER 100,000 PEOPLE IN THE NATIONAL HOMICIDE RATE. PROJECTED HOMICIDE PROBABILITY IN THE SAFEST CITY UNDER THE MOST OPTIMISTIC MODEL IS 1 IN 634. IN THE FOURTH MODEL MURDER PROBABILITIES ARE 1 IN 12. FOR A MORE DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND EXPANDED CONCLUSIONS FROM THIS STUDY, SEE ON URBAN HOMICIDE - A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.