NCJ Number
15093
Date Published
1974
Length
45 pages
Annotation
PRESENTS CONCLUSIONS ON THE BASIS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDE DATA IN EACH OF THE 50 LARGEST U.S. CITITES FOR FOUR SELECTED YEARS AND FROM CONSIDERATION OF THE NATIONAL AGGREGATE HOMICIDE RATE THE LAST FORTY YEARS.
Abstract
THE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DURING THE CURRENT PERIOD OF HOMICIDE INCREASE BEGINING ABOUT 1964, THE INCREASE IN RISK FACTORS HAS BEEN FAIRLY UNIFORM AMONG DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS AND ETHNIC GROUPS. IT WAS ALSO DETERMINED THAT DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF HOMICIDE INCREASE IN THE CITIES STUDIED CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN A GENERAL TREND. IT IS DEDUCED, THEREFORE, THAT CAUSES FOR THE HOMICIDE INCREASE ARE NOT DUE TO FACTORS THAT VARY FROM CITY TO CITY. THE POPULATION INCREASE FOLLOWING WORLD WAR II IS DEEMED A MINOR FACTOR IN THE HOMICIDE RATE INCREASE. FOUR MODELS ARE DEVELOPED TO PREDICT THE EVOLUTION OF MURDER RATES. IT IS PROJECTED THAT EVEN AT CURRENT LEVELS, APPROXIMATELY TWO PRECENT OF THE BABIES BORN NOW IN LARGE AMERICAN CITIES WILL BE MURDERED.