NCJ Number
181174
Journal
Studies on Crime and Crime Prevention Volume: 8 Issue: 2 Dated: 1999 Pages: 139-167
Date Published
1999
Length
29 pages
Annotation
After presenting some facts about recent trends in violence in the United States and discussing methodological considerations concerning the analyzed data, this article identifies the most important variables that contribute to an increase or decrease in violence.
Abstract
There was a sharp rise in violence in the United States during the late 1980's and a correspondingly sharp decline in violence in the 1990's. The increase in the aggregate homicide rate was due to escalating rates among juveniles and youth, predominantly, although not exclusively, by and against black males, particularly in the larger cities and exclusively involving handguns. Factors that have contributed to the decline in violence over the past several years are numerous and complex, and they could well differ according to locale. A significant aspect of the decline in violence involved undoing some of the factors that contributed to the growth in the late 1980's, especially kids carrying and using guns and thereby stimulating others to do likewise. Much of the decline may be attributed to incapacitation associated with the doubling of the incarceration rate since 1985, but this effect shows itself only in reductions in older individuals, since juveniles are only rarely candidates for incarceration. Current economic conditions seem to have provided legitimate economic opportunities at the same time that opportunities in the illicit drug markets were diminishing, but the cyclical nature of economic conditions makes their crime-reduction effects uncertain in the future. The current decline in violence cannot continue indefinitely. The current period of decline should be used to fashion criminal justice and community-based policies to anticipate the next increase. 10 figures and 36 references