TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EARLY WARNING MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL VIOLENCE (FROM FUTURE OF COLLECTIVE VIOLENCE - SOCIETAL AND INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES, 1974 BY JOSEPH D BEN-DAK - SEE NCJ-29735)

• NCJ Number: 29739
• Author(s): E E AZAR
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 20 pages
• Corporate Author: Studentlitteratur Fack
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: Sweden

Annotation

THEORETICAL DISCUSSION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR MAKING SHORT-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT AND THE FURTHER APPLICATIONS OF THOSE MODELING CONCEPTS TO EARLY WARNINGS OF INTERNATIONAL VIOLENCE.

Abstract

THE SHORT-TERM EARLY WARNING MODELS SUGGESTED HERE WOULD PROJECT IMMEDIATE INTER-NATION BEHAVIOR. DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL DEVELOPMENT DEALS WITH THE FOLLOWING: (1) MONITORING AND CODING EVENTS, (2) MEASURING THE CONTENT OF THOSE EVENTS BY USING A 13-POINT SCALE (WHICH IS ALSO EXPLAINED), AND (3) COMPUTING THE RATIO OF VIOLENCE OR HOSTILITY TO FRIENDLINESS. THE ARTICLE REPORTS THE RESULTS OF THE MODEL'S OUTPUT AS COMPARED TO ACTUAL EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI INTERACTIONS DURING A SPECIFIED TIME SPAN, AND FINDS THAT THE MODEL MADE SATISFACTORILY ACCURATE PROJECTIONS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)