NCJ Number
192086
Date Published
2002
Length
22 pages
Annotation
This chapter attempts to estimate the seriousness of the threat of chemical and biological warfare (CBW) terrorism and how widespread and lethal such attacks are likely to be.
Abstract
The consensus among experts in bioterrorism is that there are two agents most likely to be used by terrorists. The first is Bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes anthrax. The second is Variola major, the virus that causes smallpox. Anthrax can survive a wide range of environmental stresses in its form as a spore. Anthrax spores release bacteria upon reaching a good growth environment, such as the nutrient-rich body of a living human. Spores are difficult to kill and therefore as weapons they have the very desirable quality of remaining stable for long periods. Delivering the material so that it forms an aerosol cover and is sufficiently concentrated requires near-perfect weather conditions. A terrorist attack on a city, with an immense deadly aerosol cloud descending on thousands of inhabitants, does not seem a likely scenario. Smallpox, which is exceedingly contagious, is now potentially more devastating than at any time in history. Because routine vaccination in the United States ceased in 1972, and because vaccinations given before that time are by now ineffective, virtually all the world's civilians are susceptible to the disease. Considering the mobility of the global population, along with the fact that smallpox in its first 2 weeks of incubation shows no symptoms, a widespread surreptitious outbreak could have devastating consequences worldwide. Notes