NCJ Number
45899
Date Published
1976
Length
9 pages
Annotation
THE POTENTIAL FOR TERRORIST ACTION INVOLVING NUCLEAR THREAT OR SABOTAGE IS DISCUSSED IN TERMS OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES, TERRORIST GOALS, AND OPPORTUNITY. IT IS ASSERTED THAT NUCLEAR TERRORISM MAY BE AVERTED.
Abstract
IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THE NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS ISSUE IS MERELY AN OUTLET FOR UNARTICULATED PUBLIC UNCERTAINTY AND ANXIETY ABOUT NUCLEAR POWER AND THE TIMES WE LIVE IN. DISAGREEMENT AMONG SCIENTISTS, A LACK OF DISTINCTION BETWEEN SAFETY AND SAFEGUARDS, AND A GENERAL LACK OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE PART OF THE PUBLIC HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS ANXIETY. SIMPLY COUPLING THE WORDS 'TERRORIST' AND 'NUCLEAR' IS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PUBLIC FEAR, AND WHILE POSSIBLE THREATS TO PUBLIC SAFETY DESERVE ATTENTION, THERE HAS BEEN AN EXAGERATION OF POSSIBLE TERRORIST NUCLEAR THREATS. SUCH THREATMONGERING MAY EVEN SERVE TO BECOME A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY BY MAKING NUCLEAR ACTION MORE ATTRACTIVE TO TERRORIST GROUPS. SUCH A POTENTIAL NUCLEAR THREAT ENCOMPASSES A BROAD SPECTRUM OF ACTIVITIES WHICH MIGHT BE INDULGED IN BY A DIVERSE SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL PERPETRATORS. WHILE THE FEAR-INDUCING POTENTIAL OF SUCH A THREAT MIGHT MAKE IT ATTRACTIVE TO TERRORISTS, ANY SERIOUS NUCLEAR ACTION WOULD PROBABLY NOT SERVE TERRORIST GOALS AND COULD ALIENATE THE POPULATION. IN GENERAL TERRORIST TACTICS HAVE BEEN ON A SMALL SCALE, RAPID, DRAMATIC, AND UNSOPHISTICATED, CONSEQUENTLY TERRORIST NUCLEAR ACTION IS LIKELY TO BE AT THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL NUCLEAR ACTIONS AND WILL BE AIMED AT GENERATING FEAR AND WIDESPREAD PUBLICITY. IRONICALLY SUCH INCIDENTS MAY BE USED BY ANTINUCLEAR EXTREMISTS TO DEMONSTRATE THE INADEQUACY OF EXISTING NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY EXPANDS THERE WILL BE A GROWING NUMBER OF LOW-LEVEL NUCLEAR INCIDENTS, HOAXES, OR SABOTAGE ATTEMPTS, HOWEVER THE INCONVENIENCE AND POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS OF SUCH INCIDENTS WILL PROBABLY GREATLY EXCEED THE ACTUAL DANGER TO PUBLIC SAFETY. AS NUCLEAR FACILITIES AND TRANSPORT OF FISSIONABLE MATERIALS INCREASES AND TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, A POINT MAY BE REACHED IN WHICH THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY AND CAPACITY FOR SERIOUS NUCLEAR THREAT. HOWEVER SUCH A POINT IS IN THE FUTURE, BY WHICH TIME MORE ADEQUATE SAFEGUARDS CAN BE DEVELOPED WHICH WILL MAKE SERIOUS NUCLEAR THREAT UNLIKELY. (JAP)