NCJ Number
70445
Date Published
1976
Length
106 pages
Annotation
This study examined the utility of the Federal Parole Board's parole prediction instrument, the Salient Factor Score, for making parole decisions in Kentucky.
Abstract
The prediction instrument produces a salient factor score (SFS) for each prospective parole. The records of all 858 males released from Kentucky's prisons during 6 months in 1972 were examined to gather data that might be predictive of parole success. Then the SFS was applied to the Kentucky sample to determine what results would have been achieved had the instrument been used to predict success. Analysis of the data showed that the SFS predicted imate outcome more accurately for Federal inmates than for State inmates, but the degree of accuracy for both was very high and the difference minimal. Next, additions, deletions and substitutions of variables were made to the SFS to investigate possible improved efficiency of the instrument for Kentucky's purposes. It was found that a higher degree of predictive efficiency could be achieved if two variables (auto theft and drug history) were deleted, two were added (homicide and years in prison), and one was refined (grade refined to education). Results also showed that the SFS does not predict actual inmate success or failure. Rather, it indicates that an individual will be a poor, fair, good, or very good risk for parole. The research demonstrated that an objective instrument as a tool for parole decisionmaking is valuable, but that it should not be seen as the sole criterion for such decisionmaking. Research literature on the subject is reviewed; 34 tables, a glossary, 23 references, demographic data, the SFS, and additional survey instruments are included. (Author abstract modified)