NCJ Number
43834
Date Published
1975
Length
51 pages
Annotation
A FORECAST OF THE GROWTH OF THE CRIME OF BURGLARY IN THE UNITED STATES AND ITS PROJECTED DOLLAR COSTS FOR THE PERIOD 1972-1980 ARE PROVIDED.
Abstract
THE PURPOSE OF THE PROJECTION IS TO PROVIDE A BASIS FOR EVALUATING THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF VARIOUS DETERRENT STRATEGIES UNDER STUDY BY LEAA'S MANY ORGANIZATIONS. INCREASED BURGLARY RATES, HIGH DOLLAR COSTS, AND THE NUMBER OF BURGLARIES COMMITTED PROVIDE A POWERFUL MOTIVATION FOR ATTEMPTING TO FORECAST AND EVENTUALLY CONTROL THIS SOCIOECONOMIC PROBLEM. THE DATA NECESSARY TO DEVELOP THE PREDICTION MODELS WERE OBTAINED FROM THE U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AND THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION'S UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS. THREE FORECASTING METHODS -- LINEAR MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION, NONLINEAR MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION, AND NONLINEAR EXTRAPOLATION -- WERE USED. BY 1980, THE LEVEL OF REPORTED BURGLARY IS PROJECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 4 MILLION BURGLARIES ANNUALLY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN AVERAGE OF ONE BURGLARY EVERY 8 SECONDS OCCURRING IN THE UNITED STATES. THIS PROJECTION INDICATES THAT BURGLARY WILL HAVE INCREASED BY 4.5 TIMES SINCE 1960. THE FORECAST DOLLAR LOSS DUE TO BURGLARY IN 1980 IS $1.5 BILLION. TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED, AND GRAPHS ARE APPENDED. (DS)