NCJ Number
217376
Journal
Criminal Justice Studies: A Critical Journal of Crime, Law and Society Volume: 19 Issue: 4 Dated: 2006 Pages: 323-336
Date Published
2006
Length
14 pages
Annotation
In order to test the Zimring-Hawkins hypothesis that lethal violence (homicide) occurs independently in relation to nonlethal crimes, this study used ordinary least-squares regression models to examine the effect of crime rates on State, city, and county homicide rates based on cross-sectional data from 2000.
Abstract
The findings challenge the Zimring-Hawkins hypothesis in showing a significant positive association between ordinary crime and homicide at the State, city, and county levels. This effect of nonlethal crime on homicide was consistent in all of the models estimated, although the strongest associations were found at the county and city levels. This finding is consistent with the spatial distribution of homicide, because State-level data average the higher homicide rates found in cities with outlying rural areas, which have historically had few murders. Zimring and Hawkins' recommendation to shift the crime-control focus away from ordinary crime to lethal violence fits their argument for an applied public health model of violence reduction. The problems that contribute to lethal violence, however, are more structurally complex and culturally entrenched than the problems that confronted the public health movement when it reduced highway-traffic deaths by making vehicles and roads safer. Zimring-Hawkins' proposition is an example of how the development of simplistic solutions and slogans to explain long-term, entrenched social problems gives policymakers and the public unrealistic assumptions about solving complex problems. All U.S. cities with populations over 10,000 were used in the analyses. A random sample of 191 mid-sized counties was also included. All analyses used Uniform Crime Reports homicide and nonnegligent manslaughter rates per 100,000 residents in the population from 1999 to 2001. Consistent with previous homicide studies, a set of control variables was used to establish a baseline model. 2 tables, 5 notes, and 59 references