NCJ Number
223328
Journal
Criminal Justice and Behavior: An International Journal Volume: 35 Issue: 6 Dated: June 2008 Pages: 696-709
Date Published
June 2008
Length
14 pages
Annotation
This study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) in violent reoffenders during a 3-year period after sentencing
Abstract
The results of the study provide support for the structured professional judgment model of risk assessment in general and for the SAVRY in particular. Similar areas under the curve (AUC) values were found for the SAVRY irrespective of type of sentence, times at risk, and type of treatment intervention. The summary risk rating, a professional judgment not made on the basis of any fixed cutoff scores, outperformed the unstructured clinical judgment in terms of predictive accuracy. With respect to the predictive accuracy of the different SAVRY domains, predictive values for all domains were found except for the historical domain. A violent recidivism rate of 30 percent was found for the detention-sentenced youth and 14 percent for the mandatory-treatment-sentenced youth; detention-sentenced youths had a higher probability to recidivate. A significant association between the unstructured risk assessment and the type of sentence was found. The unstructured clinical risk judgment that was used by the court on which to base its sentencing decision did not have any predictive accuracy for violent reoffending above chance. Two recommendations are offered regarding the use of structured risk assessment instruments in forensic mental health evaluations at the request of juvenile court. Data were collected from 117 juvenile offenders taken from a total sample of 130 violent juvenile offenders prosecuted in Amsterdam with a mean age of 15.3 years at the time of the assessment. Tables, references