NCJ Number
113557
Journal
Research in Corrections Volume: 1 Issue: 1 Dated: (March, 1988) Pages: 47-52
Date Published
1988
Length
6 pages
Annotation
This article reviews 'Statistical Prediction in Corrections' by Dr. Todd Clear, which discusses philosophical implications inherent in prediction methodology, prediction issues, the limitations of prediction instruments, and the rationale for using a risk management model.
Abstract
Clear's article presents a comprehensive prediction methodology that should be useful to corrections administrators, policymakers, and practitioners. The main considerations in exploring the use of prediction in the corrections field are summarized. The prediction instrument is discussed in terms of its role in policy, programming and resource allocation; the advantage of each agency developing its own; educating the public and related agencies about it; and building a research design into the process. It is noted that while prediction instruments may enable one to forecast the percentage of high-, moderate-, and low-risk offenders who will recidivate, they are incapable of identifying specific individuals as highly potential recidivists. Aspects of the risk management model as summarized include development and implementation of a custom-designed system; use of the model as an approach for controlling and minimizing inmate population and costs associated with incarceration; and the need for a pragmatic approach by correctional administrators so as to reduce the probability of error in categorical assignment of offenders. The risk management model also can be used to aid in allocation of resources, and to help define and publicize agency philosophy.