NCJ Number
81142
Journal
Crime and Delinquency Volume: 28 Issue: 1 Dated: (January 1982) Pages: 96-124
Date Published
1982
Length
29 pages
Annotation
This paper supplements a review by Richard McGahey of Issac Ehrlich's work. The paper reviews the several potential problems that often invalidate statistical tests of social theories, with attention to the difficulty in disentangling one particular relationship from a system of interacting social relationships sufficiently to allow valid estimation by statistical methods such as multiple regression.
Abstract
McGahey's paper included a nontechnical description of the multiple regression method but only sketchy treatment of its potential problems. This paper shows that serious identification problems may exist in the estimation of the relationship between executions and homicides and that serious questions may be raised regarding the validity of any particular estimation of this relationship. In view of these problems, the investigator cannot judge a given hypothesis solely on the grounds of indications from a given statistical test. Rather, the inherent plausibility of the hypothesis itself must be taken into account. The paper concludes with a brief argument that the hypotheses relied upon by the defenders of capital punishment possess greater inherent plausibility than those relied upon by its opponents. Footnotes and graphs are included. (Author abstract modified)