NCJ Number
63761
Date Published
1979
Length
228 pages
Annotation
A PLAN TO REDUCE CRIME IS PRESENTED WHICH INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GENERAL POLICY SCIENCE RESEARCH FRAMEWORK AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM.
Abstract
THIS DISCUSSION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IS INTENDED FOR A CRIMINAL JUSTICE AUDIENCE THAT IS INTERESTED IN BOTH ITS METHODOLOGY AND USE. IN THIS RESEARCH, POLICY SCIENCE METHODOLOGY WAS COMBINED WITH THREE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF CRIME REDUCTION: THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF CRIME, THE STRUCTURE AND BEHAVIOR OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, AND THE IMPACT OF CRIME REDUCTION PROGRAMS ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE GOALS. THESE ASPECTS ARE INTEGRATED INTO A COMPUTER MODEL OF THE CALIFORNIA JUVENILE JUSTICE SYSTEM DESIGNED TO ANALYZE THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF A WIDE RANGE OF POLICY OPTIONS. THE POLICY SCIENCE FRAMEWORK IS BASED ON 12 CONCEPTS FROM GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY AND THE SOCIAL SCIENCES: POLICY SCIENCE RESEARCH, GENERALIZED POLICY SYSTEMS, PUBLIC POLICY, RANKING OBJECTIVES, POLICY INSTRUMENTS, PROGRAM STRUCTURE, SYSTEM STRUCTURE, SYSTEM BEHAVIOR, CHAIN OF IMPACT, MACROCAUSAL THEORY, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, AND SUBOPTIMIZATION. THE POLICY SIMULATION MODEL OF THE CALIFORNIA JUVENILE JUSTICE SYSTEM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING TWO QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES. AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL STATISTICALLY TESTED THE DELINQUENCY REDUCTION HYPOTHESES OF THE RELATIVE OPPORTUNITY THEORY. IN ADDITION, PROPERTIES OF SYSTEMS DYNAMICS WERE USED TO MODEL THE POLICE, PROBATION, COURT, AND CORRECTIONAL SECTORS. AN ANALYSIS OF FOUR CRIME REDUCTION PROGRAMS (RESTRAINT, REFORMATION, DETERRENCE, AND PREVENTION) EXAMINES THE EFFECT OF SPECIFIC PROGRAMS. FOR EXAMPLE, RESTRAINT AND REFORMATION ARE EVALUATED BY COMPARING PREVENTIVE DETENTION WITH JUVENILE DETENTION PROGRAMS. THE ANALYSIS CONCLUDES THAT PROACTIVE POLICIES DESIGNED TO PREVENT CRIME ARE MORE COST-EFFECTIVE AND MORE JUST THAN REACTIVE CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICIES. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH INCLUDE THE RECOMMENDATION THAT A CONTINUED EFFORT SHOULD BE MADE TO IMPROVE POLICY-RELEVANT CRIME THEORIES. CHARTS, REFERENCE NOTES, A BIBLIOGRAPHY, NAME AND SUBJECT INDEXES, AND TWO APPENDIXES (A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE CALIFORNIA JUVENILE JUSTICE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING DATA) ARE PROVIDED. (PRG)