RECIDIVISM AS A FEEDBACK PROCESS - AN ANALYTICAL MODEL AND EMPIRICAL VALIDATION

• NCJ Number: 9587
• Author(s): J BELKIN; A BLUMSTEIN
• Date Published: 1972
• Length: 32 pages
• Grant Number(s): NI-70-065-PG-01
• Corporate Author: Carnegie Mellon University
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: PAPER PRESENTED AT 41ST ORSA CONFERENCE, NEW ORLEANS, LA, APRIL, 1972

Annotation

THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM SEEN AS A SYSTEM PROCESSING INDIVIDUALS ARRESTED FOR THE FIRST TIME (VIRGIN ARRESTS), AND RECYCLING THOSE PREVIOUSLY ARRESTED (RECIDIVISTS).

Abstract

IT WAS SHOWN THAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO APPROXIMATE THE REPORTED TOTAL ARREST RATES FROM A TIME SERIES OF VIRGIN ARRESTS WHICH ARE GENERATED BY COMBINING AGE-SPECIFIC POPULATION DATA OVER TIME WITH A SINGLE FUNCTION CHARACTERIZING THE PROBABILITY OF FIRST ARREST BY AGE. WITH THIS ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF FIRST ARREST AND A SIMPLIFIED FEEDBACK MODEL OF THE RECIDIVISM PROCESS, REASONABLE RECIDIVISM PARAMETERS CAN BE DERIVED TO REPRODUCE THE TOTAL ARREST FIGURES FOR ANY JURISDICTION. THE AVERAGE REARREST RECIDIVISM RATE FOR THE U.S. IS THUS SHOWN TO EXCEED 0.85. THIS SIMPLIFIED MODEL AND THE VIRGIN ARREST CURVE CAN THEN BE USED TO FORECAST TOTAL ARRESTS AND TO EXAMINE THE EFFECTS ON FUTURE ARRESTS AND CRIMINAL CAREERS OF CHANGES IN RECIDIVISM RATES. IN ADDITION, THIS MODEL CAN EXPLORE THE EFFECTS OF THE TIME CONSTANTS UNTIL RECIDIVISM OCCURS WHICH INFLUENCE THE IMMEDIACY OF THE EFFECTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM CHANGES IN RECIDIVISM. THIS MODEL CAN BE OF CONSIDERABLE HELP TO CJS PLANNERS IN EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF PROGRAMS INTENDED TO REDUCE RECIDIVISM. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)