RECIDIVISM - THE FALLACY OF PREDICTION

• NCJ Number: 38089
• Journal: International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology Volume: 20 Issue: 2 Dated: (1976) Pages: 153-164
• Author(s): C J FRIEDMAN; F MANN
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 12 pages
• Corporate Author: Assoc for Psychiatric Treatment of Offenders
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

REPORT ON A STUDY DESIGNED TO DETERMINE THE ACCURACY OF STAFF MEMBER PREDICTIONS OF RECIDIVISM FOR JUVENILE OFFENDERS AT SELECTED CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES DURING A TWO-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD.

Abstract

THIS STUDY ALSO COMPARED THE ACCURACY OF RECIDIVISM PREDICTIONS BY STAFF MEMBERS IN THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES AND ASSESSED THE INFLUENCE OF THE YOUTH'S PRIOR COURT AND POLICE RECORDS AND SELF-REPORTED DELINQUENCY ON STAFF MEMBER'S JUDGMENTS OF RECIDIVISM. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POSITIVE FEELINGS (LIKING) OF STAFF MEMBERS TOWARD THE YOUTH AND PREDICTIONS OF RECIDIVISM WAS ALSO EXPLORED. SUBJECTS WERE 236 COURT ADJUDICATED MALE ADOLESCENTS (137 BLACK AND 99 WHITE) BETWEEN 15 AND 18 YEARS OF AGE, WHO WERE RECRUITED FROM THREE RESIDENTIAL, CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA AREA. FOUR MEASURES OF THE EXTENT OF ILLEGAL, CRIMINAL ACTS COMMITTED BY SUBJECTS DURING THE FOLLOW-UP PERIOD WERE USED AS CRITERIA FOR RECIDIVISM: SELLIN-WOLFGANG SCORE, GLOBAL RECIDIVISM SCORE, NONVIOLENT RECIDIVISM SCORE, AND VIOLENT RECIDIVISM SCORE. A PREDICTION ACCURACY INDEX WAS DEVELOPED TO REPRESENT THE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN PREDICTION OF RECIDIVISM AND ACTUAL RECIDIVISM, INDEPENDENT OF THE DIRECTION OF THE PREDICTION. STUDY FINDINGS REVEALED THAT STAFF MEMBERS WERE UNABLE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT VIOLENT AND NONVIOLENT CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR DURING THE TWO-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD FOR THEIR TRAINEES. THEIR OVERALL RECIDIVISM PREDICTIONS WERE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN CHANCE. THE LEVEL OF SERIOUSNESS AND DEGREE OF VIOLENCE OF THE MOST SERIOUS OFFENSE ON THE YOUTH'S PRIOR POLICE RECORD WAS THE KEY INFLUENCE ON STAFF PREDICTIONS OF RECIDIVISM. ALSO, THE MORE THE STAFF MEMBERS REPORTED LIKING A YOUTH, THE LESS CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR THEY PREDICTED HE WOULD COMMIT IN THE FUTURE. THE FINDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTITUTIONAL PROCEDURES FOR DETERMINING READINESS FOR DISCHARGE NEED TO BE RE-EXAMINED SINCE THEY RELY HEAVILY ON STAFF JUDGEMENTS, AND ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES DEVELOPED FOR DETERMINING THE READINESS FOR DISCHARGE OF YOUTHS IN CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTIONS. REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. --SUMMARY IN FRENCH, GERMAN, AND SPANISH