NCJ Number
62613
Date Published
1974
Length
224 pages
Annotation
A SYSTEMATIC STUDY OF 20TH CENTURY REBELLIONS--7 SUCCESSFUL (INCLUDING THE CUBAN REBELLION) AND 7 UNSUCCESSFUL, IN 15 COUNTRIES INDICATES THAT SUCCESS HINGES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE ESTABLISHED ARMY.
Abstract
SPECIAL CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO THE CONDITIONS EXISTING IN CUBA, BOTH PSYCHOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL AND STRUCTURAL, BEFORE THE SUCCESSFUL REBELLION OF 1958-1959 AS CONTRASTED WITH THE SITUATION IN THE OPPRESSIVE SOUTH AFRICAN REGIME WHEREIN A LACK OF DISTURBANCE EXISTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE KEY TO THIS CONTRAST, THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT ARMED FORCES IN THESE AND OTHER COUNTRIES EXPERIENCING SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL REVOLTS ARE EXAMINED, AS IS THE CONCEPT OF REBELLION, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPOLOGY OF REBELLION, AND A DEFINITION OF MASS REBELLION. FAULT IS FOUND WITH PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON REBELLION WHICH HAS FAILED TO DISTINGUISH AMONG THE CAUSES, FORM, AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE EVENT AND, AS A RESULT, IMPORTANT QUESTIONS HAVE BEEN LEFT UNASKED AND UNSTUDIED AND UNSUCCESSFUL CASES OF REBELLION HAVE BEEN IGNORED. THE FAILURE DISTINGUISH BETWEEN CONDITIONS LEADING TO A REBELLION AND CONDITIONS ENABLING THE REBELLION TO SUCCEED HAS RESULTED IN REBELLIONS' FAILURE DUE TO SOME WEAK OR ABSENT PRECONDITION OR CAUSE; A LACK OF STUDIES ON THE DETERMINANTS OR OUTCOME OF REBELLIONS; AND A LACK OF CONSENSUS REGARDING CAUSES. STUDIES IN THIS AREA ARE EITHER GUILTY OF A NAIVE PSYCHOLOGISM THAT IGNORES THE CONTEXT OF THE SOCIAL STRUCTURE WITHIN WHICH REBELS EXIST, OR PLACE ALL THE EMPHASIS ON SOCIAL AND STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS. STUDENTS OF REBELLIONS SHOULD LOOK FOR REGIME PRECONDITIONS WITH AS MUCH CONCERN AS THEY LOOK FOR REBEL PRECONDITIONS BECAUSE, AS THE PRESENT STUDY SHOWS, IN A SITUATION WHERE PEOPLE ARE REBELLING, THE BEHAVIOR OF THE ARMED FORCES CAN BE DECISIVE. EVIDENCE FROM THE PRACTICES OF CUBA'S CASTRO AND CHINA'S MAO-TSE-TUNG INDICATE THE IMPORTANCE OF ACKNOWLEDGING REGIME VARIABLES. FOR RADICAL CHANGE TO OCCUR IN AN OPPRESSIVE REGIME SUCH AS SOUTH AFRICA, RADICAL INTERVENTION ON THE SIDE OF THE BLACKS IS NECESSARY. A BIBLIOGRAPHY INDICATING GENERAL SOURCES, SOURCES USED IN OBTAINING DATA ON MASS REBELLIONS, AND CASE STUDY SOURCES IS INCLUDED. (AOP)